Is there a decline in property prices in Dubai?

How the Dubai real estate market reacts one month after the start of tensions in the Persian Gulf

One month has passed since the beginning of military actions in the Persian Gulf region – an event that naturally raised questions and some uncertainty around one of the most dynamic and resilient real estate markets in the world – that of Dubai.

In such moments, it is especially important to view information objectively and in context. That is why the LUXIMMO GROUP team continues to closely monitor the market and rely only on verified sources and real data. The goal remains unchanged – to provide a clear and reliable basis for making informed investment decisions.

What the data for March shows

In March, a total of 13,418 transactions were completed in Dubai across all types of real estate – residential, commercial, and plots. Compared to the previous period, there is a decline in the number of transactions by about 29%. However, it is important to note that this decline does not affect price levels – they remain stable and within the range achieved before the conflict began.

A similar picture is observed with apartments. The total number of transactions reached 10,603, representing a decrease of 26% compared to the previous period. At the same time, prices practically do not change – the reported increase of about 1% is within normal monthly fluctuations and cannot be considered a real growth.

The segment of houses and villas follows the same trend. In March, 2,186 transactions were completed, which is a decline of approximately 29%. Prices show a minimal decrease of about 4% per square meter, which again falls within the limits of standard statistical deviation and practically means price levels are maintained.

In other words – market activity temporarily slows down, but prices remain stable.

The premium segment as an indicator of resilience

One of the clearest signals of the real state of the market comes from high-end properties. It is in this segment that transactions occur which most quickly reflect investor sentiment and the level of confidence.

On March 5, 2026, one of the most significant deals of the year was concluded in Dubai – a six-bedroom penthouse worth 422 million dirhams (about 115 million USD). This alone is a strong indicator that even under increased geopolitical tension, interest in prime assets remains stable. In the same month, another similar deal was made – again for a six-bedroom penthouse in the same project, worth nearly 100 million USD, with both properties located in the prestigious coastal area Jumeirah 2.

Alongside this, 57 more transactions with apartments and penthouses in the price range between 5 million and 25 million USD were recorded, further confirming activity in the luxury segment.

For houses and villas, the most expensive sale during the period reached 95 million dirhams (close to 26 million USD) and is in the iconic Palm Jumeirah area. Additionally, 34 more transactions with properties of this type were concluded at values between 10 million and 22 million USD.

The distribution of activity by districts is also indicative. Despite isolated incidents in the area, Palm Jumeirah recorded 107 transactions for the month, while Dubai Marina maintained high activity with 149 completed transactions. Among the most dynamically developing zones stands out Dubai Islands with an impressive 417 transactions, while Business Bay ranks as the leader with 477 transactions. In the heart of the city, Downtown Dubai also demonstrates stability with 151 completed sales.

All these data clearly show that the highest market segment remains active and resilient – a factor that traditionally serves as a leading indicator of the overall health of the Dubai real estate market.

What leading investors say

A look at the new construction market – a key segment for Dubai – gives an even clearer picture of the situation.

In an interview with CNBC, the founder of Emaar, Mohamed Alabbar, describes forecasts of a serious price correction of around 15% as “unrealistic.” According to him, even with temporary fluctuations in consumer confidence, the Dubai market traditionally recovers quickly, supported by the active role of the government.

He also emphasizes something important – the expected new supply in 2026–2027 may have a balancing effect on the market, limiting excessive price growth and supporting sustainable development in the long term.

Practically, this means that the current situation may lead to a temporary “cooling” of the market – not through price declines, but through a slowdown in their growth. For buyers, this often turns out to be the most favorable entry moment.

Market activity and buyer behavior

Data from leading developers confirm this stability. Binghatti reports sales of about 500 million dirhams weekly in March – or over half a billion dollars monthly, despite regional tensions.

An even more important indicator is that cancellations of already reserved properties remain below 1%, and construction activities continue without interruption. This clearly shows preserved investor confidence.

Also interesting is the dynamics of supply. Listings on real estate portals increase by just over 5%, but without sharp spikes. A deeper analysis shows that about 65% of these properties have actually already been on the market and are simply being offered again. This is not a signal of pressure or panic, but rather normal market movement.

The role of the state

One of the main reasons for Dubai’s resilience remains the active policy of local authorities. In response to the situation, the government announced a stimulus package of 1 billion dirhams (about 272 million USD), aimed at supporting business and the economy.

According to Rashed Al Ansari, such timely measures strengthen market confidence and highlight the emirate’s ability to respond quickly and effectively during periods of uncertainty – a model we have already seen during previous crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic.

What this means for investors

Currently, Dubai continues to strengthen its position as a global investment hub – a place that attracts international capital and offers a stable environment for living and business.

Life in the emirate is gradually normalizing, and connections with Europe, including Bulgaria, remain active, albeit with temporary fluctuations in flights.

All this outlines a relatively clear picture: the market is not in decline, but in a short-term adaptation phase. Such periods often create the best opportunities for well-informed investors.

Conclusion

The coming months will show whether this resilience will be maintained, but the first data from March already give an important signal – leading markets like Dubai’s do not react panicly but go through such situations with controlled dynamics.

For its part, the LUXIMMO GROUP team will continue to monitor market developments and provide up-to-date information based on real data and on-site observations.

For all those considering purchase or investment in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, or other emirates, the current moment may prove not only suitable but also strategic.

Watch the full episode, in which the founder of LUXIMMO GROUP, Nikola Stoyanov, presents a detailed analysis of the Dubai real estate market during the past month of March 2026.