Has there been a decline in the real estate market over the past three months?

The first quarter of 2026 has ended, and with that, more and more people are asking the question “Have the deals decreased?” and “Is there a drop in prices in the new year?”, which is expected after Bulgaria's entry into the eurozone on January 1, 2026. In this article, we will answer these questions by providing statistics on what has happened in the market over the last three months, comparing it with the results from the first quarter of the past 2025.

This analysis is based on official data, statistics, and real market observations. As a leading national group in the sector, LUXIMMO GROUP has a significant volume of information derived from the activities of over 200 brokers working in 17 offices in the major cities and resorts of the country, as well as from approximately 2000 deals annually.

Within the last week, a detailed overview was prepared, covering current deals, price levels, buyer interest, and the number of new reservations of residential properties. Data from the Registry Office and leading real estate portals were used, as well as internal sources based on the company's active market participation.

At the moment, it can be summarized that in the first quarter of 2026 there is a decrease in the number of deals, as well as in new reservations. Nevertheless, buyer interest remains stable, which is clearly seen from the steady number of client inquiries.

The first quarter of 2025 was characterized as one of the strongest periods in recent years, which makes the current results easier to explain.

The current data for the first quarter of 2026 show the following:

• Sofia: a drop in deals by 12.3%, with the capital forming approximately 19.7% of the market in Bulgaria;

• Plovdiv: a minimal drop of 2.1%, which practically means maintaining activity levels;

• Varna: a significant decrease of 21.5%;

• Burgas, including Sozopol: a drop of 18%;

• Veliko Tarnovo: a decrease of 13.4%;

• Vidin: a drop of 17.4%;

• The area of Nesebar, Sunny Beach, and surrounding resorts: a significant drop of 29.3%;

• The Tsarevo area: a decrease of 10.1%;

• Bansko, Razlog, and surroundings: an increase of 2.3%.

What the statistics show in different market segments

Regarding prices, analyses show that currently there is no noticeable drop in the asking prices of residential properties. However, there is an increase in the number of so-called “hot offers,” especially in new construction and mainly among smaller investors. They offer discounts ranging from 3% to 5%, as well as more flexible payment schemes with shifting the greater burden to the final stage.

In the secondary market properties, there is a greater willingness from sellers to negotiate the price, which leads to deals being concluded with more noticeable deviations from the initial asking values compared to the previous year.

One of the key indicators for the future development of the market is the number of started deals with a paid deposit, the so-called “new reservations.” Data from LUXIMMO GROUP's activities, covering various segments – from luxury to budget, both in the secondary market and new construction through the specialized brand Stonehard, as well as working with foreign clients through property.bg – show a 9% decrease in new reservations for the period under review.

Conclusions

Despite global challenges, Bulgaria continues to be characterized as a relatively stable real estate market. An important factor remains the mortgage loan conditions that banks can offer, with interest rates currently ranging from about 2.5% to 3%. Under such conditions, interest in purchasing residential and vacation properties remains high, supported by active and financially stable buyers.

In conclusion, the available data show that currently there is no talk of a real estate market crash. Rather, a process of normalization is observed after a prolonged period of intensive growth. The number of deals is returning to more sustainable levels, and the prices of quality properties remain stable. The development in other segments is yet to be monitored.

A detailed analysis with additional data and expert conclusions, including regarding purchases with mortgage financing and trends in this segment, will be presented at the beginning of May.